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Friday, February 9, 2018

New Ice Age?

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It is possible, the Sun is cooling!

Scientists warn of unusually cold Sun: Will we face another ice age?

Quote:

A study by the University of California San Diego has claimed that by 2050, the Sun is expected to become cool. You might think "what's the big deal," but remember that this means the solar activities that create the heat of the Sun to sustain life on Earth may diminish. And the last time it happened was in the 17th Century, when the Thames River froze. Scientists call this the "Maunder Minimum".

Physicist Dan Lubin at the university and his team studied the past event and concluded that were are in for a worse case. The Sun is expected to get much dimmer than last time and, in scientific terms, it is a "grand minimum" -- a time period in the 11-year solar cycle when the solar activities are at the lowest point.

Also read: Scientists warn of 'mini ice age' that could hit Earth and freeze major rivers by 2030

According to the study, titled Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs and published in the journal Astrophysical Journal Letters, this grand minimum will be 7 percent cooler than such periods from the past.

I have to explain this. The effect if diminishing of the solar activity upon the atmophere is indirect. Even though the total energy flux is reduced by a small fraction of a percent, the total Sun light reaching the surface in some areas, especially the oceans may be reduced by a very large factor (tens percents) caused by increased cloud formation, the "cloud seeding" effect caused by increasing galactic cosmic rays flux striking the upper atmosphere. To summarize it, the causuality chain is as follows:

1) reduced Solar activity
2) reduced coronal flares
3) reduced intensity of the solar wind
4) reduced magnetic flux carried by the solar wind away from the sun out to the outer reaches of the solar system (beyond Kuiper Belt)
5) reduced solar magnetic flux means less shielding of the inner planets of the Solar System against high energy galactic particles ("Cosmic Rays")
6) less magnetic shielding means higher intensity of the Cosmic Rays seen at the Earth.
7) High energy cosmic ray particles cause microscopic condensation trails when striking the atmosphere.
8) The microscopic condensation trails cause water vapor condensation which leads to accelerated formation of clouds, accelerated - compared with the situation when there were no particle trails. Note that condensation by cosmic ray microtrails is the major factor in cloud seeding, another one are dust particles.
9) Increased rate of cloud formation causes higher average cloud coverage over the portions of the Earth surface, reflecting the Sunlight back out to space. Causing cooling of the climate.



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