Sea level change - new trend in data falsification

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"Is the Sea Level Stable at Aden, Yemen?"
by Albert Parker, Clifford D. Ollier
Technical Note, 06 November 2017

Conclusions
... The sea levels have, therefore, been stable in Aden, as at Karachi and Mumbai, over all the 20th century.

Wiki Indian Ocean

My comments

After analyzing Aden, Mumbai and Karachi data, and comparing them with the "adjusted" sea level results published on the "Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level" (PSMSL) web site, the authors conclude that the "adjustments" performed by PSMSL institution are not scientifically justified and produce a false picture of the rising sea level which cannot be supported by the evidence.

PSMSL is a British, probably publicly or government-funded organisation engaged in oceanographic data falsification, pardon - data "analysis", quote:

"Established in 1933, the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) has been responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data from the global network of tide gauges. It is based in Liverpool at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), which is a component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)."

Breitbar, not known for mincing their words published a succinct article on that paper:


Tidalgate: Climate Alarmists Caught Faking Sea Level Rise

It can be summed up as follows:

Alarmist scientists have been caught red-handed tampering with raw data in order to exaggerate sea level rise.
The raw (unadjusted) data from three Indian Ocean gauges – Aden, Karachi and Mumbai – showed that local sea level trends in the last 140 years had been very gently rising, neutral or negative (ie sea levels had fallen).

But after the evidence had been adjusted by tidal records gatekeepers at the global databank Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) it suddenly showed a sharp and dramatic rise.

The whistle was blown by two Australian scientists Dr. Albert Parker and Dr. Clifford Ollier in a paper for Earth Systems and Environment.

Good job guys! :)

Heretic

Study gives a new meaning to "parasitic government"

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Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism

The link between authoritarianism in the society and in the government and prevalence of parasitic infection may be causual or coincidental but the effect is real and correlation factor is very high, 0.6

Parasitic infestation alters one's behavior due to neuro-active compounds released by the parasites into the host's bloodstream. This is well documented. That would explain the causuality, that is one causing the other. Another possibility is that the authoritarian governments often keep most of the popluation in poverty, which then is associated with all sort of infections and infestation risk due to poor hygiene and malnutrition. That would be the coincidental effect, that is one is asociated with the other but not directly causing one another.

There is another interesting essay (and a book link) indirectly related to the topic of authoritarianism, hygiene, lifestyle and parasitic infections. The essay is discussing the origin of human urban civillisation.

Why did we start farming? by Steven Mithen

(book: "Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States", by James C. Scott, Yale, 336 pp, £20.00, September, ISBN 978 0 300 18291 0)

The author is saying that the shift from the neolithic hunting-gathering to settled communities and then cities took place against the logic, reason and against a common sense. It must have been triggered by something powerful enough to overcome a natural human disgust against dreadful work-filled life in overcrowded sewage drenched slums. Shorter lifespan, unhealthy grain-based diet, physical deterioration, more diseases - and autocratic leadership (!). The author is speculating on what some of the compulsive city-forming factors could have been, one of which may have been a religious belief so powerful as to compel people adopt a lifestyle that was contrary to their natural human interests.  Which religion, I wonder?

Babel Tower by  Pieter Bruegel the Elder, Wiki 

It kind of neatly meshes with the parasite-autocratic connection. The process could have been reinforcing itself. As some tribes were compelled/forced (!) to build "cities", then parasitic infections not only would perhaps make it more likely to accept autocratic leadership, which then would reinforce the expansion of the cities. In addition, population inhabiting disease-infested "cities"  would gradually build some disease immunity, while the surrounding nomads would not have such immunity, leading to their decline due to epidemics (or to fleeing the city-infested areas). That would also reinforce the process. It would be interesting to speculate what was the original religion, however it is also possible that the original force was not just a religious idea but set of commands imposed by some advanced visitors who appeared to the local population to be powerful "gods" demanding from their captives to work for them building some large structures or in mining some minerals. Both scenarios are plausible, Middle-Eastern neolithic cities could have either started as religious cults, or as Anunaki/Elohim-run labor-camps for their slaves, or both!

Heretic

New report casts doubts on validity of NOAA, NASA global temperature data

Indicating a possibility that the publications and data used to justify the recent Climate Change initiatives such as Paris Accord may have been falsified!

"On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding"
Abridged Research Report,
Dr. James P. Wallace III, Dr. Joseph S. D’Aleo, Dr. Craig D. Idso, June 2017

ABSTRACT
The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data, produced by NOAA, NASA, and HADLEY, are sufficiently credible estimates of global average temperatures such that they can be relied upon for climate modeling and policy analysis purposes.
...
The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of
their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever –despite current claims of record setting warming. Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings.

An article published yesterday in zerohedge.com summarizes the results as follows, quote:

As world leaders, namely in the European Union, attack President Trump for pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement which would have saddled Americans with billions upon billions of dollars in debt and economic losses, a new bombshell report that analyzed Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data produced by NASA, the NOAA and HADLEY proves the President was right on target with his refusal to be a part of the new initiative.

According to the report, which has been peer reviewed by administrators, scientists and researchers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.), and several of America’s leading universities, the data is completely bunk: ...

__________________________

Update 6-Aug-2017

TEMPERATURE READINGS PLUNGE AFTER AUSTRALIA’S BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ORDERS END TO ‘TAMPERING’

Quote:

Graham Lloyd, The Australian
Recorded temperatures at the Bureau­ of Meteorology’s Thredbo Top automatic weather station have dropped below -10C in the past week, after action was taken to make the facility “fit for ­purpose”.
A record of the Thredbo Top station for 3am on Wednesday shows a temperature reading of -10.6C. This compares with the BoM’s monthly highlights for June and July, both showing a low of -9.6C.
The BoM said it had taken immed­iate action to replace the Thredbo station after concerns were raised that very low temperatures were not making it onto the official record. Controversy has dogged the bureau’s automatic weather station network since Goulburn man Lance Pigeon saw a -10.4C reading on the BoM’s website on July 2 automatically adjust to -10C, then disappear.
Later independent monitoring of the Thredbo Top station by scientist Jennifer Marohasy showed a recording of -10.6C ­vanish from the record.
...

Zika virus, GM mosquitoes or TDAP vaccine?

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More controversies and more "known unknowns"...

Zika Virus – What They Are Not Telling You

While the Brazilian government rushes to blame the Zika virus for this huge rise in abnormal birth defects, causation remains unclear. Only a small number of babies with birth defects, who died, had the virus in their brain or in the mother’s placenta. This means a large number of the babies who died had no Zika virus in their brain. Hard to blame Zika then, which has been around since before 1948 and has never been known to cause birth defects and/or death. In fact, Zika makes only one in five people get “mildly” sick with flu-like symptoms, with no symptoms at all in 4 out of 5 people. So why are they quick to blame a generally benign Zika virus?

In late 2014, the Brazilian minister of health announced that a new Tdap shot would be mandatory for all expectant mothers starting in 2015. Since it’s mandatory, mothers with birth defect babies received this newly formulated vaccine while pregnant. The timeliness of the Tdap vaccine and the sudden rise in birth defects is more than just a little coincidental. The consequences of this untested vaccine is being swept under the rug.

More links (far out warning - not for mainstream believer types!):

The CDC / Its agents run global covert ops / The virus hunters

Zika Outbreak Epicenter ... in Same Area where GM Mosquitoes were Released in 2015

Is the Dreaded Zika Virus Another Giant Scam?


Update 13/02/2016

A dissenting voice of reason. By Anonymous:

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Zika virus damages babies when pregnant women initially become infected for the FIRST time. A mother who was previously exposed to Zika has natural immunity. Zika is native to West Africa, NOT to South America. Women in west Africa have natural immunity since they are exposed to it as children. But Zika was brought to Brazil by the World Cup a few years ago and introduced to a population that was not exposed to it before, leading to a LARGE number of first infections, many of whom were pregnant women.

In other words, a West African woman is unlikely to have her first Zika exposure while she is pregnant and her children will be protected by her already-developed immunity. However, South American women are NOT exposed to Zika endemically and therefore a first infection for them is catastrophic. Zika does its damage in the first 1-2 weeks of exposure, after which the body develops antibodies and fights it off so it is undetectable. This is why many pregnant women and children with microcephaly will not show signs of active Zika infection; the damage has already been done during the initial course of infection, which has resolved and been cleared by the immune system by the time of testing (testing for ANY virus outside of its initial symptomatic outbreak is not very effective, e.g. herpes simplex). Zika causes microcephaly through widespread clotting in the brain during the early weeks of fetal development. Infection with Zika resolves quickly for the mother.

TDAP has never been associated with these specific birth defects. It is in fact a very well tested vaccine which has never demonstrated an increase in microcephaly anywhere it has been used, e.g. in the Western world where it has been administered routinely for decades. Additionally, a 2015 rollout of TDAP would not have produced the massive increase in microcephaly incidence in time for it to be noticed this year (the data that showed the increase in microcephaly is from 2014 onwards).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2819875/ - paper from 2009 detailing difficulty of accurately assessing Zika infection r/t cross-reactivity of tests with other dengue fever viruses. Also contains data on antibodies vs. Zika in endemic populations.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4593454/  - paper from 2015 detailing clinical cases of Zika in women in Rio. Interestingly, many pts positive for Zika had not been exposed to dengue, an endemic cousin of Zika which may have granted partial cross-immunity?

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6502e1.htm  - the CDC has a great, sourced write-up on guidelines for pregnant women concerned about Zika.

Added 20/02/2016:
Zika Virus Associated with Microcephaly

--------------------------


My comments:

There are still some doubts about TDAP vaccine in pregnancy, although the risk may be presumed but not proven.

For example this:

http://www.thehealthyhomeeconomist.com/tdap-vaccine-pushed-on-pregnant-women-despite-fetal-risks/

Quote:

The truth is that the Tdap shot has never been proven safe for use during pregnancy. In fact, Tdap is classified by the FDA as a Class C drug.

The definition of a Class C drug which is how the Tdap shot is classified:

Animal reproduction studies have shown an adverse effect on the fetus and there are no adequate and well-controlled studies in humans, but potential benefits may warrant use of the drug in pregnant women despite potential risks.

Sanofi Pasteur Adacel (TDAP) safety sheet (FDA document):

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/biologicsbloodvaccines/vaccines/approvedproducts/ucm142764.pdf

Quote:

--USE IN SPECIFIC POPULATIONS----
Safety and effectiveness of Adacel vaccine have not been established in pregnant women. (8.1)

http://www.vaxchoicevt.com/whooping-cough-shots-during-pregnancy/

Quote:

* from Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Summary Report February 23-24, 2011 minutes (p. 34-35)

"From January 1, 2005 through June 30, 2010, of 10,350 reports after Tdap vaccines, 129 involved pregnant women who submitted a report to VAERS. Although there were reports of 20 spontaneous abortions, 2 stillbirths, and 2 congenital anomalies, VAERS is not designed to assess whether a vaccine caused an adverse event. A review of VAERS reports in pregnant women who received Tdap vaccines revealed no elevated frequency or unusual patterns. Both GSK and sanofi pasteur maintain vaccination pregnancy registries to collect data on pregnancy outcomes and newborn health status outcomes following vaccination. Both were kind enough to allow Dr. Liang to present on their behalf. The work group reviewed their data in detail, and she provided the summary points. Boostrix® was licensed in 2005 for 10 through 18 year olds, and in 2008 for adults. GSK maintains a registry to collect data on pregnancy outcomes and newborn health status outcomes following vaccination. From its U.S. market launch in 2005 through August 2, 2010, 33 pregnancies were prospectively registered. Of these pregnancies, 18 were lost to follow-up. Outcomes were reported for seven pregnancies, and consisted of six live infants born without birth defects and one spontaneous abortion at seven weeks gestation. The remaining eight pregnancies were on-going at the time of last contact. In addition to the prospective reports of pregnancy received to the pregnancy registry from the U.S., GSK has received 13 reports from other countries. Just over half of these reported normal outcomes. The rest are on-going or were lost to follow-up. There have been no birth defects after Boostrix® vaccination reported to GSK."

Stan (Heretic)

Bad science and politically motivated low fat dietary guidelines finally exposed and ditched!

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Recent (20/02/2015) New York Times article by Nina Teicholz (**):

The Government’s Bad Diet Advice

Quotes

First, last fall, experts on the committee that develops the country’s dietary guidelines acknowledged that they had ditched the low-fat diet. On Thursday, that committee’s report was released, with an even bigger change: It lifted the longstanding caps on dietary cholesterol, saying there was “no appreciable relationship” between dietary cholesterol and blood cholesterol.
...
Instead of accepting that this evidence was inadequate to give sound advice, strong-willed scientists overstated the significance of their studies.
Much of the epidemiological data underpinning the government’s dietary advice comes from studies run by Harvard’s school of public health. In 2011, directors of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences analyzed many of Harvard’s most important findings and found that they could not be reproduced in clinical trials.
...
In 2013, government advice to reduce salt intake (which remains in the current report) was contradicted by an authoritative Institute of Medicine study[*]. And several recent meta-analyses have cast serious doubt on whether saturated fats are linked to heart disease, as the dietary guidelines continue to assert.

Uncertain science should no longer guide our nutrition policy. Indeed, cutting fat and cholesterol, as Americans have conscientiously done, may have even worsened our health. In clearing our plates of meat, eggs and cheese (fat and protein), we ate more grains, pasta and starchy vegetables (carbohydrates). Over the past 50 years, we cut fat intake by 25 percent and increased carbohydrates by more than 30 percent, according to a new analysis of government data. Yet recent science has increasingly shown that a high-carb diet rich in sugar and refined grains increases the risk of obesity, diabetes and heart disease — much more so than a diet high in fat and cholesterol.

It’s not that health authorities weren’t warned. “They are not acting on the basis of scientific evidence, but on the basis of a plausible but untested idea,” Dr. Edward H. Ahrens Jr., a top specialist at Rockefeller University and prominent critic of the growing doctrine on dietary fats and cholesterol, cautioned back in the ’80s.
...
Since the very first nutritional guidelines to restrict saturated fat and cholesterol were released by the American Heart Association in 1961, Americans have been the subjects of a vast, uncontrolled diet experiment with disastrous consequences. We have to start looking more skeptically at epidemiological studies and rethinking nutrition policy from the ground up.
Until then, we would be wise to return to what worked better for previous generations: a diet that included fewer grains, less sugar and more animal foods like meat, full-fat dairy and eggs.

Other links:

*) She probably meant this report: Sodium Intake in Populations: Assessment of Evidence (14/05/2015)

**) Nina Teicholz, author of “The Big Fat Surprise: Why Butter, Meat and Cheese Belong in a Healthy Diet.”

http://stan-heretic.blogspot.ca/2015/02/useless-low-fat-dietary-guidelines-by.html

http://stan-heretic.blogspot.ca/2015/01/salt-intake-not-correlated-with.html

http://stan-heretic.blogspot.ca/2015/01/are-some-diets-mass-murder.html

http://stan-heretic.blogspot.ca/2013/05/dietary-fats-undeserved-bad-reputation.html

http://stan-heretic.blogspot.ca/2013/10/lesson-from-medical-history-beware-of.html



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US to drop anti-cholesterol food guidelines!

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Cholesterol in food is "no longer a concern"!   It is now OK to eat bacon and eggs!

From Commons.Wiki 

U.S. may lower cholesterol's level of threat to health: report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. advisory panel reviewing national dietary guidelines has decided to drop its caution against eating cholesterol-laden food, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

At a December meeting, the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee discussed its decision to no longer deem cholesterol a "nutrient of concern," according to the Washington Post.
...

What happened to those scientists and medical doctors who, for many decades have been signing and propagating the anti-cholesterol guidelines?  I wonder, what could be the overall health damage estimate, caused by those recommendations, to date?
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Useless low fat dietary guidelines by governments, no scientific justification!

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Open Heart/BMJ just published a meta-study:

Evidence from randomised controlled trials did not support the introduction of dietary fat guidelines in 1977 and 1983: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives National dietary guidelines were introduced in 1977 and 1983, by the US and UK governments, respectively, with the ambition of reducing coronary heart disease (CHD) by reducing fat intake. ...

Conclusions

Dietary recommendations were introduced for 220 million US and 56 million UK citizens by 1983, in the absence of supporting evidence from RCTs.

Discussion
The main findings of the present meta-analysis of the six RCTs [Randomized Controlled Trials] available at the time of issuing dietary guidelines in the US and UK indicate that all-cause mortality was identical at 370 in the intervention and control groups. There was no statistically significant difference in deaths from CHD. The reductions in mean serum cholesterol levels were significantly higher in the intervention groups; this did not result in significant differences in CHD or all-cause mortality.
It is a widely held view that reductions in cholesterol are healthful per se. The original RCTs did not find any relationship between dietary fat intake and deaths from CHD or all-causes, despite significant reductions in cholesterol levels in the intervention and control groups. This undermines the role of serum cholesterol levels as an intermediary to the development of CHD and contravenes the theory that reducing dietary fat generally and saturated fat particularly potentiates a reduction in CHD.
...
There was best practice, randomised controlled trial, evidence available to the dietary committees, which was not considered and should have been. The results of the present meta-analysis support the hypothesis that the available RCTs did not support the introduction of dietary fat recommendations in order to reduce CHD risk or related mortality. Two recent publications have questioned the alleged relationship between saturated fat and CHD and called for dietary guidelines to be reconsidered.31 ,32 The present review concludes that dietary advice not merely needs review; it should not have been introduced.

Actual data from the publication:

References and links:

http://www.zoeharcombe.com/blog/

Interestingly, the original studies at that time produced similar similar conclusions of non-supporting the reduction of dietary fat.  The following quotes are from Zoë Harcombe's blog (one of the main author of the above quoted study):

The studies’ own conclusions.  These are the verbatim conclusions from each of the studies:

1965 Rose Corn and olive oil: “It is concluded that under the circumstances of this trial corn oil cannot be recommended as a treatment of ischaemic heart disease. It is most unlikely to be beneficial, and it is possibly harmful.” (ref 9)

1965 Research Committee Low-fat diet: “A low-fat diet has no place in the treatment of myocardial infarction” (ref 10) [heart attack].

1968 MRC soya-bean oil: “There is no evidence from the London trial that the relapse-rate in myocardial infarction is materially affected by the unsaturated fat content of the diet used.” (ref 11)

1969 Dayton LA Veterans study: “Total longevity was not affected favorably in any measurable or significant degree… For this reason, and because of the unresolved question concerning toxicity, we consider our own trial, with or without the support of other published data, to have fallen short of providing a definitive and final answer concerning dietary prevention of heart disease.” (ref 12)

1970 Leren Oslo Diet Heart study: “Epidemiological studies have demonstrated several factors associated with the risk of developing first manifestations of coronary heart disease. Blood lipids, blood pressure and cigarette smoking are such risk variables… In spite of the small numbers this observation lends some support to the view that the multi-factorial approach is the best way to the solution of the coronary heart disease problem.”(ref 13)

1978 Woodhill Sydney Diet Heart Study: “Survival was significantly better in the P [control] Group.” “It must be concluded that the lipid hypothesis has gained little support from secondary intervention studies.” (ref 14)
...

Destruction of economy by parasitic governments and financial institutions

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The destruction of our economy by parasitic governments and financial institutions

Present

Most countries’ financial centers and governments are currently in the process of expanding the supply of world currencies and cheap credit, in order to boost their own budgets, salaries and political power and to avoid recessions.   One of the effects of this policy is the protection of their own personal wealth consisting of paper assets such as bond and stock funds that would otherwise have collapsed.

Past

A similar expansion of the monetary supply has historically led to the de-industrialization of  entire regions or countries that followed such policies for a sustainable period of time, typically over several generations.   On the surface, the mechanism of such de-industrialization seems to work by inflating the costs of doing business faster than the price inflation of manufactured goods and services produced by affected companies, thus destroying profitability, especially when a vast supply of goods is available from peripheral provinces or from other countries.  One such example was the 5th century Roman Empire (see Fall Of Empire essay), the other one is 16th century Spain under Philip II.

“Nuts and bolts”

Industrial companies that may initially enjoy the cheap credit, use it to expand production facilities or other business assets, which then leads to excess production or excess supply of services and inevitably destroys profitability.   Decreasing profitability reduces investment yield, the Return On Investment (ROI) but it also serves to restrain the inflationary pressure fuelled by the financial expansion.   The reduced inflationary pressure due to collapsing profitability allows the central banks and governments to maintain the low inter-banking lending interest rate which in turn facilitates the issuance of even more credit, including borrowing by the governments for virtually limitless spending on themselves.

Risk management, CDS and leverage

The issuance of more and more credit to an expanding circle of corporate and other borrowers at a time of falling yields would have normally been stopped at some level by the rising risk premium preventing a further reduction of interest rates.  Rising loan risk would have acted as a negative feedback preventing the currently observed unprecedented drop in interest rates and related bond yields.  It would have ultimately prevented excessive credit generation.   The negative risk-mediated feedback has been sabotaged by the use of a special form of financial credit insurance called “Credit Default Swaps” (CDS).   CDS allowed the lending institutions to exceed the lending limits imposed by the normal risk avoidance standards (and by common sense) , by allowing them to profitably lend, giving very low and falling loan interest rates.   In this low interest rate environment, it was necessary to lower the required capital reserve for banks and financial institutions such as hedge funds in order to maintain the expected profitability.  Until recently, this required capital reserve was decreed to be 1:11 (capital-to-total loans), which was recently further reduced by the “Basel 3” agreement to 1:30 bringing the world banks to similar “standards” as hedge  funds which “enjoyed”  the 30:1 leverage even before the 2008 crash  (Leverage is the inverse of the capital requirement).

Positive feedback loop of destruction

Apart from destroying industrial profits, the excessive credit also creates bubbles in selected investment sectors such as stock, futures and bonds.  Rising bond prices are further depressing  the yields and interest rates which further accelerated the lending.  This situation is described in science and engineering by the term “positive feedback loop”. This means that even a small input stimulus is amplified by the system and fed back to an input, amplifying itself further until the system reaches some very large deviation from an equilibrium, and saturates or the system breaks down.

Eventually financial companies flee the market where interest rates and Return On Investment (ROI) has been depressed, moving most of their investment capital off-shore to countries where the ROI is still high.   The process is repeated until all manufacturing economies end up eventually running unprofitable industries, subsidized at first by the investment capital influx, later by government subsidies to maintain employment and to prevent the paper assets backed by industry from crashing.   Subsidized manufacturing in poorer countries floods the world market with underpriced industrial goods allowing prices of industrial goods to remain stagnant (deflation) in spite of the rapid expansion of the financial system and money.
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I saw the future...
   
The last stage of this economic destruction is the breakdown of the unprofitable manufacturing, resources and agricultural sectors when the subsidies run out or when the employees refuse to work under the austere conditions imposed upon them by the profit squeeze. This process, like the credit growth itself, is also governed by the positive feedback law.   Once started, it will accelerate, fuelling itself like a cancer or fire.  This will happen specifically, when food prices and the cost of living overtake the wages paid by unprofitable manufacturing companies causing industrial disruption due to strikes and closures, leading to further increases in the cost of living and so on.   

The impact of this upon the developed countries that almost totally depend upon the subsidized under-priced production from the developing countries, will be equally severe.  A decline of the subsidized imports of industrial and consumer goods will cause the supply chain to break down in the developed economies, leading to explosive inflation of all prices for manufactured goods, commodities, food and services.  The ensuing inflation will put an upward pressure on interest rates which government will no longer be able to obfuscate or manipulate using financial techniques alone.

Aftermath

The  inflation-induced jump in interest rates and yields will crash the bond market (bond values are inverse to their yields).  Old bonds will drop in value destroying most of the pension funds and probably most of the financial institutions, given that it may trigger an avalanche of CDS claims (another positive feedback) which will accelerate the institutional and systemic collapse.  At the same time, the new bonds will become very expensive for borrowers to issue, thereby derailing the “gravy train” enjoyed by governments and large corporations the world over.  It may even make the refinancing or rollover of old debt impossible.

The break-down of the government bond market will cause currency exchange rates to vary wildly and may cause some currencies to crash and disappear, beginning with those countries that will default on their government bonds first and ending with probably all presently known paper currencies disappearing and being replaced by something else.  

Science, technology and ideas (including business ideas) are unlimited.   Completely new industrial companies, technologies and services will be created, filling in the present business vacuum, using new-old forms of self-financing and capital-rising that are more robust and do not depend on large financial institutions and governments.  This will happen in the countries that  provide a legal framework effective in protecting private ownership and civil order yet not stifled by any excessive legislation or taxation.

The good news is that that which worked in the past, will work in the future, and what didn’t work in the past will not work in the future either.

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Why does Canadian gov...

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... steal less?  Less than other governments! Hope you will enjoy this refreshing point of view, and appologies for straying away from the main blog topics.  (feel free to click that box on the right, it's OK.  8-:) )

This discussion begun with Gavin Hewitt's BBC article

------------------------

Stan "Dozent" P. wrote:

You were right, the British papers are much more interesting and honest then North American, BUT...

Quote:

"That is one of the key conclusions of the paper. Since adopting the euro Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain have become increasingly uncompetitive. That and the slowdown in productivity is the heart of the crisis in the eurozone, rather than debt. Debt is a symptom."

No, It is not, pure and simple. Uncompetitiveness is a symptom. Debt is the result of the disease. The Euro is a facilitator, not the root cause. The cause of the cancer is rooted deeper, much deeper. It is true that without the conversion to Euro the massive theft ( or misallocation of capital  8-)  ) in Greece and Ireland would not have happened.  But a similar story has happened in USA and it is hard to blame it on adopting a dollar. Iceland is in the worse situation then Greece or Ireland yet it does NOT use the Euro! One can not blame it on the Mediterranean culture either. Iceland is a country of tough, hard working people yet it is screwed up just as well.

The root cause is that western elites and governments are indolent and corrupt to the bone. Give the mouse a piece of cheese, he will ask for a glass of milk.

20 years ago Argentina and Brasil went bankrupt. Their liabilities were about 100 Billion. Their popolation 100 million Who the heck lent 120 Billion to Iceland, a country of 300,000 people? Who lent 600 billion to Ireland, the country of 3 million? Greeks did what Bernie Madoff would do if he was a state! Cheated, falsified numbers, and paid bills with new phony money. Who the heck packaged all these Alabama Ninja mortgages into "AAA" securities. Who sold this crap to Icelandic banks? Where did they got the money to pay for it? When you look at it closely, Iceland was used to launder money and they got a commission for doing it.

The establishment, the governments and their paid journalists will invent one reason after another why this crisis happened and continues.  This will change nothing Thanks God our Canadian Prime Minister took a bribe of $300,000.  He thought it is BIG MONEY.  Thanks God another Prime Minister got involved in his friend Golf Course.  It cost taxpayers 0.5 million.  Thanks to these crooks, our government was paralyzed for 20 years and missed the greatest thieving opportunity of their lives.  Thank to them, we can calmly wait until this economic bomb explodes SOMEWHERE ELSE.  Explode it will! A few hundred crooks cannot stop 6 billion people who want to live decent lives.  Someone, somewhere, sometimes will default on their "obligations" and this whole house of cards will fall apart.

Stan P.

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External debt of Ireland falls to €1.61 trillion

According to todays' Irish Times article.  Population of the Republic of Ireland is 4.5M.

Quote:

Ireland’s external debt continued to fall, standing at €1.61 trillion at the end of December 2009, a decrease of €26 billion compared with the end of September. The figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) include general government, the monetary authority, financial and non-financial corporations and households.    ... Credit institutions and money market funds had debt of €661 billion at the end of last year, a fall of close to €30 billion compared to three months earlier, and a decline of €107 billion compared to a year earlier.  However, general Government foreign borrowing rose €2 billion to €75 billion between the end of September and December 31st 2009 as new long-term debt securities were issued, off-setting redemptions in short-term securities. Compared to a year earlier, it was €17 billion higher.  Intra-group borrowing and fluctuating exchange rates accounted for a rise in direct investment debt liabilities of €10 billion to €210 billion.

My comments:

It will take 31 years to pay back 1.6Teu at that rate providing that Irish institutions and households find enough assets to pay all that.   There are many questions,  I am curious as to who the creditors are?  British? Germans?    Why did they lent so much to a country with no assets other than property they were lending for?    If most of that was backed up by property, that is clearly under water now, since the 50% property price drop in 2007-2009.  How could an island nation of 4.5M people own 1.6Teu worth of properties to back that all up?   How long (maturity) are those liabilities?  Does Ireland really own that much in backup assets or is most of that 1.6Teu really unsupported by anything other than a promise to pay it back?  That would be roughly 1Meu per family/household!     Iceland's case springs to my mind.

A crash has just begun in Ireland!

Fasten your belts and brace for a crash landing!

Today's Irish Independent article :

The publication of the two reports coincide with the news that at least €10bn has been withdrawn from Ireland in the past week as the impact on Ireland's financial reputation emerges.

If the outflow of funds has begun as I wrote in my blog 3 months ago, if that is 10Beu/week then it is a matter of a few weeks before all Irish banks will run out of cash and the gov will have to either fork out that cash (if it has got any left), renege on the promise or let them all fail! In my back of the envelope estimate there is only 20-40Beu of cash reserves left with the Irish banks, perhaps even less!

Updated 19/04/2009

I was off by 2 weeks. The banks ran out of cash after 6 weeks instead of 4 as I thought. Irish government managed to save their bacon, for the time being by injecting 90B eu of fresh money into their system, in the first week of April. Irish banks ONE : Irish taxpayers ZERO, everybody happy, all love! This should last them about 3 more months assuming that the cash bleed rate stays the same. We should expect some more interesting news in the middle of the summer. So far so good, go to a pub, drink beer...

Can US Treasury Bonds default?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/oct302008.html

Quotes:

A topic raging lately between us has been the failures to deliver USTreasurys. This extraordinary phenomenon highlights the extreme mountain of toxic bond (in)securities spewed worldwide by the corrupted US financial sector, but it also highlights the questionable legitimacy of USTreasury Bonds. The traded volume of USTBonds had been recorded a few years ago to be over $2 trillion above official issuance in USTBonds. So maybe we are seeing a redux of counterfeit issuance of USTBonds in order to satisfy unprecedented demand. By the way, USTreasury management is done, and accounting is done, handled by only one giant bank.

Could the failures to deliver USTreasurys, as shown in the alarming graphic below, be a precursor to actual default? We will see. Kirby maintains a period of tremendous hyper-inflation is coming. My forecast is for a possible USTreasury default, as conditions grow out of control, and economic disintegration catches the nation by surprise. The collapse of General Motors could trigger a profound change in perception concerning the effective implementation of USGovt and Wall Street bailouts and rescues. Either way, disruptions like never seen before are on the horizon. The settlement failures bring into question the integrity of the USTreasurys as a legitimate market. Their counterfeit from more supply than issuance is well documented, and rings like a loud echo to the naked stock shorting chapter of US financial markets.


P.S. (post-edited 6-Nov-2008)

I thought I had to add this: the reason I believe it's important is because it reminds me of the same pattern of discovery of the massive (though illegal) naked shorting of the small cap and recently the large cap companies, on the US stock market! (see the refs below.) The first sign of the "smoke" was the "failure to deliver" of the stock to Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) within 3 days following a transaction. Apparently, just before the current financial collapse begun earlier this year, the failure to deliver reached a few % of the total volume. If the same now seems to be affecting the bond market, it means massive shortfall of the T-Bonds, that is some institutions were trading "I owe yous" without having the said assets available to cover.

In other words, a fractional reserve banking principle applied to bonds rather than just to the monetary base!

This is a much bigger potential issue in the financial system than the naked shorting of some stocks. About ten times bigger!

References:

The Register article

Patrick Byrne (Deep Capture blog)

(Added 4-Dec-2008)

The Value of Money by J.E.Carrasco

Quote:

"US 30 YEAR BONDS
Having been an institutional bond trader, it is absolutely unbelievable to me that the 30-year US bond is trading at a yield of 3.19%. In light of the current liabilities facing the US government (discussed below) and the fact of the coming Baby Boomer cohort's retirement, I can't help but conclude that the final credit bubble to burst is the US long bond. Yields will greatly increase sooner than later as all these liabilities are assumed by the US tax payers."

(Updated 5-Dec-2008)

Jim Grant: Go Ahead, Fools, Keep Buying Treasuries

(Updated 31-Dec-2008)

Bond Dealers, Hedge Funds Will Face Penalty for Failed Trades

Quote:

With interest rates so low, bond market participants have less incentive to solve settlement problems because they’re forgoing less return than usual on a failed trade.

...

Fails climbed in the weeks following the Sept. 15 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as demand for the relative safety of Treasuries increased.
Failures to deliver or receive securities rose to a record $5.311 trillion in the week ended Oct. 22. While the amount fell to $891 billion by Dec. 17, that’s still above the average of $165 billion before credit markets seized up in August of last year, according to Fed data dating to 1990.